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At the other extreme, fatal floods have stranded thousands of people from Death Valley to Kentucky. More than half of the western US is facing extreme drought conditions, and farmers in Oregon’s Klamath Basin talk about illegally using force to open dam gates for irrigation. The US now averages a $1bn disaster every 18 days.
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The climate crisis has already uprooted millions in the US – in 2018, 1.2 million were displaced by extreme conditions, fire, storms and flooding by 2020, the annual toll had risen to 1.7 million people. It will also include the educated, the middle class, people who can no longer live where they planned because it’s impossible to get a mortgage or property insurance because employment has moved elsewhere. The coming migration will involve the world’s poorest fleeing deadly heatwaves and failed crops. Cities from Munich to Buffalo will begin competing with each other to attract migrants.Īn aerial view of Fairbourne village in Gwynedd, north Wales, expected to be abandoned by 2045. North America and Europe have 300 million people above the traditional retirement age (65+), and by 2050, the economic old-age dependency ratio there is projected to be at 43 elderly persons per 100 working persons aged 20–64. The global north faces the opposite problem – a “top-heavy” demographic crisis, in which a large elderly population is supported by a too-small workforce. Most of this increase will be in the tropical regions that are worst hit by climate catastrophe, causing people there to flee northwards. Global population will continue to rise in the coming decades, peaking at perhaps 10 billion in the 2060s. This upheaval occurs not only at a time of unprecedented climate change but also of human demographic change. (More than 13 million Bangladeshis – nearly 10% of the population – are expected to have left the country by 2050.) But in the coming decades wealthy nations will be severely affected, too. It is predictable that Bangladesh, a country where one-third of the population lives along a sinking, low-lying coast, is becoming uninhabitable. Wherever you live now, migration will affect you and the lives of your children. Models predict that fires in the boreal forests and Arctic tundra will increase by up to four times by 2100.
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In 2019, colossal fires destroyed more than 4m hectares of Siberian taiga forest, blazing for more than three months, and producing a cloud of soot and ash as large as the countries that make up the entire European Union. These zombie fires smoulder year round in the peat below ground, in and around the Arctic Circle, only to burst into huge blazes that rage across the boreal forests of Siberia, Alaska and Canada. Even in January, peat fires were burning in the Siberian cryosphere, despite temperatures below –50C.
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Arctic areas are burning, with mega-blazes devouring Siberia, Greenland and Alaska.